Rina’s top winds are 100 miles (160 kilometers) per hour, up from 80 mph earlier, according to an NHC website advisory at 8 a.m. Miami time. It’s the sixth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic storm season that runs from June through November.
Rina Quickly Becomes Hurricane Off Honduras
“Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so” as the storm spins over warm waters off the north coast of Honduras, the center said. Rina may become a major storm later today or tomorrow, the NHC said.
Mexico issued a hurricane watch from north of Punta Gruesa to Cancun, which means hurricane conditions are possible within the area and readied 1,130 storm shelters in the state of Quintana Roo, which includes Cancun and Cozumel. The country also declared a tropical storm watch for the east coast of the Yucatan from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa, the NHC said.
Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, said Rina won’t be a threat to Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production. Kinetic Analysis Corp. estimated the storm may shut in 6.69 million barrels of oil produced by state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos, Latin America’s largest oil producer.
Rina Nearing Resorts
Rina is forecast to approach Cancun in two days, then curve east toward the west tip of Cuba by the weekend, the NHC’s tracking maps show. The system is about 305 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, moving west-northwest at 3 mph. Rains of up to 4 inches are forecast for the Cayman Islands.
The center forecasts Rina’s winds at it nears the Yucatan’s east coast may strengthen to at least 120 mph, a Category 3 storm with the power to snap trees, blow down poorly built homes and create a “high risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets due to flying and falling debris.”
Hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph extend 15 miles from its core and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more reach out 115 miles, the NHC said.
The center is also monitoring a low-pressure system north of Curacao and Bonaire that’s producing thunderstorms over the south-central Caribbean. The system has a 30 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within two days, it said.
The Atlantic hurricane season is closely watched by the energy industry because of the potential impact on oil and natural-gas production areas, including those in the Gulf of Mexico. Florida is the biggest orange grower after Brazil.
Rina is the 17th named storm this year, which makes 2011 the seventh most-active season since record-keeping began in 1851, Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground Inc. in Ann Arbor, Michigan, wrote yesterday.
There were 19 named storms last year, while 2005 had the most with 28, including Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans.
***In late October, convection off the tail end of a cold front began to show signs of organization. After a low-pressure area formed, it began moving towards the north and northwest and organized. After a reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system, the NHC determined it had acquired sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical depression on October 23. The depression underwent further intensification and became Tropical Storm Rina later that day. Rapid strengthening allowed it to attain hurricane status on October 24.
[edit]Current storm information
As of 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) October 25, Hurricane Rina is located within 10 nautical miles of 17.3°N 83.6°W, about 210 mi (335 km) southwest of Grand Cayman and about 320 mi (515 km) east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 85 knots (100 mph, 160 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 InHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 3 kt (3 mph, 6 km/h).
Hurricane force winds extend up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center of Rina, and tropical storm force winds up to 115 miles (30 km) from the center.****
Hurricane Rina is in the western Caribbean Sea slowly gaining strength. The storm is now a Cat 2 with winds around 100 mph, and may become a major hurricane with winds around 115 mph by tomorrow. The patch takes it close to Cancun around Thursday and then bends it eastward towards Cuba for the weekend. We’ll see where it goes from there, but if you live in South FL keep an eye on this thing. Usually this time of year the cold fronts and steering flow is a lot stronger, so the hurricanes get batted around like a ping pong ball and don’t get a chance to gain super strength. This is a little different in the short term, since it’s going over warmer water with light winds. We’ll keep our eyes on it. I’ll tweet about Rina this afternoon too (only b/c if I tweeted personal stuff, your eyes would glaze over. “Gotta pick up kids at school, later cleaning up after my dog” real compelling, right?).
Stateside I’m watching a cold front slide off the New England coast taking rain out to sea with it. The wind will pick up behind this thing and gust to around 30 mph for the NE.
Another shot of rain is moving over MI this morning ahead of a warm front, but the major storm for the afternoon and evening is getting started over the Rockies now. The wind will switch around to the E over CO and blow up the Rockies. This should change your rain over to snow overnight for Denver (whose high was 80 yesterday!) and pile up 2-4”. A winter storm warning is in effect for a good chunk of CO and WY. I’ll show you the maps.
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