Thursday 23 June 2016

EU referendum: Populus poll on eve of vote puts Remain 10 points ahead of Leave on 55% – latest updates

As the country prepares for the crucial vote on its future in, or out, of the European Union, polls suggest the debate is neck-and-neck.

Today, the final poll of the campaign shows a narrow lead for the Remain camp, according to the Evening Standard.

The Ipsos MORI survey shows 52 per cent wanting to stay in the European Union, against 48 per cent for a Brexit.

Fieldwork for Ipsos MORI’s survey of 1,592 people was carried out until 9pm last night, with the results still so close to be well within the margin of error. 

Although most of us will be sad that this joyous referendum has come to an end, and millions will join Referendum Re-enactment Societies so we can do it all again every couple of weeks, we can perhaps take comfort in the likelihood that in many ways it’s only just started. Because - and this may be a wild and random prediction - the demands to “get our country back” and stop “floods of immigrants” might just carry on.

You never know, but if you’ve galvanised millions of people who feel like that, and assured them it’s getting worse because “1.5 million Turks are set to swarm here”, and unveiled billboards showing huge lines of immigrants bringing the country to “breaking point”, your supporters might carry on being mildly cross even after the vote...

Technically, no. An exit poll is conducted on a large scale outside polling stations but broadcasters have no way of knowing how accurate an exit poll would be as the last result they have to compare it to is the 1974 referendum. However, pollsters YouGov will be running an on-the-day poll on June 23, the results of which will be announced at 10pm, once voting has closed. 

This will be our last indication of which way the vote has swung until results are announced - although, due to inconsistencies in individual polls, no one poll can by wholly trusted.

Use the Telegraph's poll of polls tracker to see how the Remain and Leave campaigns have fared. Based on figures from What UK Thinks, it takes an average of the last six polls, and will be updated until poll day. 

Results from these areas will then be declared throughout the night, along with result totals from 11 nations and regions.
Depending on how close the poll is, the result may become clear before the final national result is officially declared by the Chief Counting Officer, who will be based at Manchester Town Hall.

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