Economy of Uzbekistan

Since gaining independence, the Government of Uzbekistan has stated that it is committed to a gradual transition to a market-based economy. The progress with economic policy reforms has been a cautious one, but cumulatively Uzbekistan has shown respectable achievements. The government is yet to eliminate the gap between the black market and official exchange rates by successfully introducing convertibility of the national currency. Its restrictive trade regime and generally interventionist policies continue to have a negative effect on the economy. Substantial structural reform is needed, particularly in these areas: improving the investment climate for foreign investors, strengthening the banking system, and freeing the agricultural sector from state control. Remaining restrictions on currency conversion capacity and other government measures to control economic activity, including the implementation of severe import restrictions and sporadic closures of Uzbekistan's borders with neighboring Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan have led international lending organizations to suspend or scale back credits.

Working closely with the IMF, the government has made considerable progress in reducing inflation and the budget deficit. The national currency was made convertible in 2003 as part of the IMF-engineered stabilization program, although some administrative restrictions remain. The agriculture and manufacturing industries contribute equally to the economy, each accounting for about one-quarter of the GDP. Uzbekistan is a major producer and exporter of cotton, although the importance of this commodity has declined significantly since the country achieved independence. Uzbekistan is also a big producer of gold, with the largest open-pit gold mine in the world. The country has substantial deposits of copper, strategic minerals, gas, and oil.

Minerals and mining also are important to Uzbekistan's economy. Gold, alongside cotton, is a major foreign exchange earner, unofficially estimated at around 20% of total exports. Uzbekistan is the world's seventh-largest gold producer, mining about 80 tons per year, and holds the fourth-largest reserves in the world. Uzbekistan has an abundance of natural gas, used both for domestic consumption and export; oil used for domestic consumption; and significant reserves of copper, lead, zinc, tungsten, and uranium. Inefficiency in energy use is generally high, because the low controlled prices do not stimulate consumers to conserve energy. Uzbekistan is a partner country of the EU INOGATE energy programme, which has four key topics: enhancing energy security, convergence of member state energy markets on the basis of EU internal energy market principles, supporting sustainable energy development, and attracting investment for energy projects of common and regional interest.

Uzbekistan’s banks have demonstrated reasonably stable performance in a largely state-dominated local economy. Sector stability is currently supported by rapid economic growth, low exposure to external financial markets and the strong external and fiscal position of the sovereign. However, the sector remains vulnerable to possible economic shocks due to weak corporate governance and risk management, fast recent asset growth, significant directed lending and acquisitions of problem assets. Banks’ foreign currency obligations, specifically those arising from trade finance, are particularly vulnerable due to existing foreign exchange constraints.

According to Fitch Ratings, there are notable risks of asset quality deterioration in case of a reversal in economic trends. The funding base is mainly short-term, largely sourced from corporate current accounts, while retail funds account for only a small 25% of total deposits. Longer-term funding is provided by the Ministry of Finance and other state agencies, which comprise a notable proportion of sector liabilities. Foreign funding is small, estimated at about 10% of the total liabilities, and plans for further borrowings are moderate. Liquidity management is constrained be the lack of deep capital markets, and banks generally tend to hold substantial cash reserves on their balance sheets. The quality of capital is sometimes compromised by less conservative regulatory requirements for recognition of credit impairment and by investments in non-core assets.