Sarkozy braced for bruising first round in French election

Trailing badly in the opinion polls, every one of which has predicted he will get through the first round but lose in the second, Mr Sarkozy gave no quarter to his chief opponent, Francois Hollande.
Beating his fist in time to his words, he asked: "Why have Europe's other socialist leaders lost power? Because they left the restaurant without paying the bill. Now we're paying it for them and we don't want them back.
"Hollande will lose!"
Sarkozy supporters at his final pre-election rally cheered. But beneath the surface of the buoyant crowd in Nice was a fear that, for all his brash rhetoric, Mr Sarkozy is facing defeat.
Barring a political earthquake, Mr Sarkozy will enter a run off against Mr Hollande after voting on Sunday which will eliminate the eight other candidates.


But recent polls have put Mr Hollande up to 15 points ahead of Mr Sarkozy in the second round of voting as French voters warm to his message of a renegotiated European Union fiscal pact, to loosen the strictures on spending; a 75 per cent tax on those earning more than €1 million; and posts for 60,000 new teachers.
Now the president has just two weeks to convince France to change its mind.
In five years Mr Sarkozy has gone from being the brash outsider, who promised rupture with past and reform to bring France a bright new future, to a man who has presided over widespread disillusion and, more recently, a spate of high-profile defections.
If he succeeds in turning his political fortunes around in the next fortnight, it would be the most breathtaking reversal in modern French political history.


The Socialist candidate also insists that he would overcome German opposition and authorise the ECB to "reflate" European economies by printing money and financing infrastructure programmes across the Continent.


Neither of the front-running candidates has managed to life a morose national mood. The perpetual French tendency to detest incumbents and distrust mainstream politicians has been compounded this year by high unemployment and a fall in the purchasing power of low- and middle-income voters.


Opinion pollsters forecast a low turnout of about 72 per cent, compared with 85 per cent in 2007 when both Mr Sarkozy and his Socialist rival at the time, Ségolène Royal, convinced voters that they were a fresh and different kind of French politician.


Low turnout could upset the arithmetic of the opinion polls, but it is unclear whether it will most extend to voters of the left or right. Much will also depend on last-minute migrations of voters.


A high vote for the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen (who is already credited by polls with her party's highest ever score of 17 per cent) would fatally deflate Mr Sarkozy's total. A high vote for the hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon could relegate Mr Hollande to second place.

Either way, the overall support for the five candidates of the left – about 46 per cent – is so high that pollsters see little chance of Mr Sarkozy overtaking Mr Hollande in the next fortnight.


A close first-round "victory" for Mr Sarkozy tonight would give him a psychological boost and might help him to mobilise the right and centre before 6 May. A first place for Mr Hollande would be a near-fatal electoral blow for the President.