Prince Nayef, born in 1934, is the most likely candidate for the crown prince position, according to Theodore Karasik, director of research at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. King Abdullah, who is 87, underwent surgery earlier this month to relieve back pain after traveling to the U.S. in November for three months of medical care.
The Saudis will want to convey a “message of continuity in terms of their economic policies, and reiterate their commitment to oil market stability at a time of global uncertainty and OPEC divisions,” Jarmo Kotilaine, chief economist at Jeddah-based National Commercial Bank, said in a telephone interview. “There are certain policies that they have agreed on over the last few years and months, and they won’t change this.”
Saudi Arabia increased oil supply to help meet rising demand after exports from Libya collapsed. The kingdom failed in June to reach an agreement with other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost production quotas. It also announced $130 billion in social and housing spending after popular movements toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya this year.
State Television
Saudi state television announced the death of Sultan and then began playing verses from the Koran, as is the custom. He was born in Riyadh in 1928, according to the Saudi embassy in Washington, and was heir apparent to the throne.
“The succession scenario has been set in motion,” Karasik said today in a phone interview from Dubai. “It’s pretty obvious, based on what we know, that the next crown prince will be Nayef because of his credentials. I expect the transition to be smooth.”
Six kings have ruled Saudi Arabia since it was established in 1932. The 1992 basic law stipulates that the king must be a son or grandson of the kingdom’s founder.
--With assistance from Nadeem Hamid in Washington and Digby Lidstone in Cairo. Editors: Digby Lidstone, Paul Verschuur
The country's royal court released a statement about the death Saturday.
"King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud mourns the death of his brother and his Crown Prince ... Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud," the statement said.
The statement also said he died "outside the kingdom following an illness," but did not release details on the ailment.
Reports in recent years have indicated that Crown Prince Sultan was battling cancer.
King Abdullah's half-brother was the desert kingdom's defense minister for decades, meeting regularly with visiting dignitaries.
He took a leading role in Saudi Arabia's involvement in the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq, heading a coalition of about half a million troops from more than 30 countries.
Of his many children, perhaps the best known internationally is Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Saudi Arabia's former ambassador to the United States.
Prince Bandar served as ambassador from 1983 to 2005 and was friends with the family of President George W. Bush.
Saleh Al-Namla, a member of Saudi Arabia's Shura Council, said the prince would be missed.
"Crown Prince Sultan lived his life in service of his country and also serving the Arab people and the people of Saudi Arabia," Al-Namla, said. "He was very much loved by the country."
Prince Sultan's death brings up questions about who will now be named crown prince. Many have felt that Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud would be the one to get that post.
In 2009, King Abdullah appointed Prince Nayef as the country's second deputy prime minister as rumors started to circulate about Prince Sultan's failing health.
At the time many Saudis took the appointment to mean that Prince Nayef was made the country's crown prince in the place of the ailing Sultan and was second in line to be king,
King Abdullah in 2007 created a group called the Allegiance Council to make decisions on succession issues. It is unclear when this group, made up of members of the royal family, will make a decision on who will be named the crown prince.
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