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Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Fantasy & Reality: All about quarterbacks‎

Would you use a high waiver pick on Tim Tebow this week?




Michael Fabiano: I would, and I will in all of my fantasy leagues. Listen, people might criticize Tebow for his poor mechanics, his lack of experience at the NFL level or any number of other issues. But what I see is fantasy points -- and a lot of them -- every time he steps on the football field. Over the final three weeks of last season, Tebow scored more points than any other player. No, that's not a misprint either. And in his first real action of 2011, he scored more points than Tom Brady, Darren McFadden and Roddy White -- and he did it in less than one full half! Am I missing something? And when you consider the ridiculous numbers that quarterbacks are putting up this season and the fact that he gives you those ever-important rushing totals, well, it makes Tebow that much more attractive. Now that Broncos coach John Fox has given him the nod in Week 7, he needs to be owned in all leagues. I'd even go so far as to say that Tebow will be a top-10 fantasy points producer at his position over the team's final 11 games if he remains the starter.


The running back to bench is Redman, who didn't do much to impress fantasy leaguers in the absence of Rashard Mendenhall last week. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Best have a tough week based on his matchup against the 49ers. I know Best was a beast against the Bears, but no team has surrendered fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Niners. At wide receiver, the players to start are Boldin, Green and Holmes. It's a tough call between Holmes and Harvin, who have both been major disappointments from a statistical perspective. In fact, neither wideout is even in the top 30 in fantasy points at his position. But Holmes has a slightly more attractive matchup against the Dolphins, who are in the top 10 in terms of allowing the highest average number of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2011.


Remember before the season when I made a couple of draft strategy suggestions regarding quarterbacks (If not, click here)? One of them was to wait a long time and then draft multiple passers with upside and hope to strike it big. Some people did well with that plan, others have not, but the whole idea was to get a good quarterback cheaply. I think we can borrow a page out of that plan again before Week 6 because of the surprising number of up-and-coming quarterbacks who have put up -- and are expected to put up -- nice stats the rest of the season.


If you're hurting at quarterback, these guys could help. If you're set at quarterback, these guys could turn into valuable pieces in a trade to help your lineup elsewhere. They're listed in order of who I'd take first, second, third, etc ...


Tim Tebow, Broncos (owned in 8 pct. of CBSSports.com leagues): Forget talk about his throwing motion or his polarizing personality or anything else -- he finds a way to put up stats and that's all we as Fantasy owners should care about. So long as he does that, he's going to be a 20-point-per-week Fantasy option (he had 18 Fantasy points in one half last week). How many owners out there wouldn't want that if they're struggling at quarterback? Whether you need him or not, he's worth fighting for off waivers.
Receiving corps: Good, but will it matter? Tebow is expected to complete about half of his passes and not throw much downfield. His receivers will draw some coverage, but until he is a proven passer, defenses might challenge him by stacking the box and daring him to chuck it.
Remaining schedule: Good. He faces some of the league's top D-lines before the year ends (Bears, Lions, Vikings, Jets) so he could get stuffed on some of his rushes, but his final four matchups are against teams that bleed Fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Trade value: Right now it shouldn't take much to get Tebow in trade, but who's offering him up? Even owners who have Brady or Stafford have nothing to lose by picking him up and sitting on him until his value is red hot (which might be after Week 7, read on). Offering a low-end starter (borderline No. 2/3 receiver or running back) is more than fair but might not be accepted.


Matt Cassel, Chiefs (47 pct.): This is the guy to get if you whiff on Tebow. Cassel has completed 66 percent of his passes this year and has cut down on his turnovers over the last two games. Moreover, unless you're of the belief that Jackie Battle is the next Jamaal Charles, Cassel will have to throw to put points on the board for Kansas City.
Receiving corps: Good. Dwayne Bowe is obviously a stud and Steve Breaston has come alive after a hamstring injury got him off to a slow start. He could use one more reliable target but until then will be able to lean on his running backs and tight ends.
Remaining schedule: Excellent. Many of Cassel's detractors will say "He's only playing well because he's played against soft defenses." That might be true, but so is this: Eight of his last 11 opponents are among the bottom 10 in Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Of those eight, six are among the bottom 10 in the NFL in passing yardage allowed on average.
Trade value: You might be able to get Cassel in exchange for washing your buddy's car. Seriously. No one's getting a lot for Cassel right now, so you shouldn't have to give a lot.


Alex Smith, 49ers (24 pct.): I'm not sure how long Smith's re-emergence will last, but he's been great over his last two games (at least 21 Fantasy points in each). One key to Smith's play has been his improved completion percentage (currently a career-best 65.9), way higher than his previous career high of 60.5 pct. Another key has been improved work from his offensive line -- after getting sacked 11 times in his first three games he's been taken down just three times in his last two (all by Philly defensive end Jason Babin). He's reconnected with Vernon Davis and should be able to post nice numbers even without a true No. 1 wide receiver.
Receiving corps: Fair, and even that might be generous. Vernon Davis is a stud, Delanie Walker has some potential. He lost Josh Morgan to a broken leg in Week 5 and that was the receiver he trusted the most. Michael Crabtree is a decent outlet and we'll see how Braylon Edwards plays when he comes back from knee surgery. But between his tight ends and running backs he should have a number of good targets, just not great targets.
Remaining schedule: Also fair. None of his remaining matchups are against pass defenses that allow a glut of Fantasy points to quarterbacks, and only three games stand out as great matchups (two against the Rams, one against the Seahawks, two of which come at the end of the year). Three matchups -- at Washington, at Baltimore and vs. Pittsburgh -- stand out as big red strikes against Smith.
Trade value: If you can get Cassel for a car wash, you can probably get Smith for the bucket and towel you'll need to wash a car. He'll be afforded the chance to put up numbers even in tough matchups, but there's so much distrust for him based on his entire career that the asking price for him is really small.

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