All bets are off if Rudd returns: Wilkie

Andrew Wilkie is Tony Abbott's best chance of becoming Prime Minister. Here's one possible scenario. The day after the next budget in May, Wilkie will walk into the Senate courtyard and, with maximum theatrical flourish, tear up his agreement to support Julia Gillard. That is the threat from the Tasmanian Independent if Federal Parliament does not pass laws by then to restrict the amount of money problem gamblers can flush down poker machines.
He bases his stand on principle, just as he did when he took the courageous step of becoming a whistleblower against John Howard. ''This man is fearless,'' says Nick Xenophon, the Independent in the Senate who won his place on an anti-pokies campaign.


But would the left-leaning Wilkie insist on such purity of principle that would result in bringing down the minority Labor Government - over just one issue?


And what if, despite Labor's best efforts, the legislation to impose mandatory pre-commitment technology is sunk by his fellow Independents? How would the nation react then, not to mention his constituents in Hobart, to the nation-stopping spectacle of an MP who scored 13,788 first preference votes, deciding to bring down the Federal Government?


He is the one who has drawn the line in the sand on pokies - but then Julia Gillard, for whatever reason, acceded to his demand, under the demanding pressure of trying to stitch together a minority government.


These questions highlight the enormity of the power play now underway between Wilkie and Gillard.


Pokies were a core issue for Wilkie's campaign in the electorate of Dennison which he won in 2010 from Labor on the retirement of popular MP, Duncan Kerr, a former Keating government minister.


His anti-pokie campaign may have been inspired by his time with the Greens who have a similar policy and will support his bill in the Senate. He was a Greens candidate for Bennelong against John Howard in 2004 and for the Senate in Tasmania in 2007.


Mr Wilkie told Sky News this morning he would be "hard pressed" to support another Labor leader in this parliamentary term because it would demonstrate serious instability.
"It wouldn't be in the public interest," he said.
But Mr Wilkie would not rule it out in some circumstances, depending on who was installed as leader.
"There would be another period of negotiation, my view and, I suspect, the view of my colleagues on the cross bench is that, all bets are off and we would need to sit around the table again and negotiate a new agreement," he said.
He doubted there would be an leadership change.
"It's in the ALP's best interest to demonstrate stability," he said.
Mr Wilkie said the best chance the government had of re-election was letting voters live under their policies.
He cited the household compensation package for a carbon price as an example.