Reserve Bank opens Beijing bureau

ECONOMISTS believe central bank is unlikely to move the interest rate before the end of 2011 and are divided on whether the cash rate will go up, down or stay on hold in 2012.


The Reserve Bank of Australia seems to be torn between doubts about global economic growth and the high inflation driven by rising prices for Australia's mining commodities.


Global financial markets have been volatile in the past week as worries persist over whether the Eurozone will come up with an effective approach to containing the Greek debt crisis and prevent the debt contagion from spreading to other countries.


All 15 economists surveyed by AAP say the RBA will keep the cash rate at 4.75 per cent at next week's board meeting, and only two say there will be a move before the end of the year - one up and one down.


Of the eight that are predicting a cash rate move in the next eight months, three say the cash rate will go down and five say it will go up.


JP Morgan Australia economist Stephen Walters expects the RBA to stay on the sidelines throughout 2012.


He said that while Europe only gets 8 per cent of Australia's direct exports, there could be a flow-on effect if Europe suffers a mild recession.


"The downgrades (in economic growth) eventually will cascade through the forecasts for the emerging economies in Asia, which receive nearly half our exports," Mr Walters said.


"We will be downgrading the growth forecasts for Australia after we see the size of the downgrades for our major export markets to our north.


"Recent RBA commentary indicates they are comfortable to remain inactive until the balance of risks shifts decisively one way or the other."


Nomura chief economist Stephen Roberts says he expects the only move by the RBA before the end of 2012 to be a single rate hike, probably in February.


"It (the forecast) is contingent that some of that uncertainty around global growth settles quite a deal over the remaining months of this year.


Such is the change in fortunes, the federal government unveiled plans this week for a major study on what the rise of Asia will mean for the country in coming decades.


The white paper will focus on economics, politics and security.


The government has said business needs to be prepared for a strong exchange rate for a long period linked with Asia's need for minerals and resources, and Prime Minister Julia Gillard has warned the country is suffering a two-speed economy split between a mining boom and a soft manufacturing and services sector.


The RBA's new office will be based in the embassy in China and will begin operating from the middle of this month.


It will be headed by Ivan Roberts, a Mandarin-speaking senior economist currently in the Asian Economies Research Unit.